Model Changelog

20-Factor Probability Engine

• Added
  Market intelligence signals: bet % vs. money %, opening vs. current line movement, reverse line movement detection
• Added
  Schedule & fatigue signals: rest days differential, travel distance, schedule density, time zone changes, altitude adjustment
• Added
  Advanced team metrics: pace of play, effective field goal %, turnover rate, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings
• Added
  Situational signals: revenge games, referee foul rate, referee over/under tendencies, coaching tendencies, player prop correlations
• Added
  Opening odds stored on first cache — line movement delta now tracked across full game lifecycle
• Improved
  Win probability blend rebalanced across 20 factors with sport-specific weights
• Improved
  Pick card now shows all active signal badges (Sharp $, RLM, Revenge, Travel, Fatigue, Altitude, Efficiency, Coach)

Advanced Analytics & Tools

• Added
  Model Accuracy page with calibration chart, rolling 30-pick win rate, and public hero banner
• Added
  Hedge Calculator at /hedge — guaranteed profit calculation for any two-sided bet
• Added
  Betting Glossary at /learn — 30 terms with win probability context
• Added
  Model Methodology page at /how-it-works — full factor breakdown with weights
• Added
  Stripe billing portal link in account settings
• Improved
  Pick cards now show model factor tooltip, injury impact badge, weather overlay, and Why This Pick? section
• Improved
  Daily briefing widget added to top of dashboard

Win-Probability-First Model

• Added
  6-factor win probability engine: market consensus, recent form, home field advantage, injury impact, weather, fatigue
• Added
  Confidence tiers (HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW) mapped to win probability thresholds
• Added
  Sharp action detection: steam moves, reverse line movement, public vs. sharp money divergence
• Added
  Situational angles: back-to-back games, travel fatigue, altitude, divisional rivalry flags
• Improved
  All site copy rewritten to lead with win probability rather than edge percentage
• Improved
  Model accuracy tracker now shows win rate by confidence tier and sport

Community & Social Features

• Added
  Community forum with sport-specific channels and pick sharing
• Added
  Bankroll tracker with deposit/withdrawal logging and equity chart
• Added
  Bet journal with notes, tags, and outcome tracking
• Added
  Dark Horse Finder — underdog picks where model sees more than the market
• Added
  Parlay Optimizer — AI-built parlays with combined win probability
• Added
  Prop Finder — player prop analysis with matchup context

Arbitrage & Line Movement

• Added
  Arbitrage scanner — guaranteed profit opportunities across 10+ sportsbooks
• Added
  Line movement tracker with opening vs. current line delta
• Added
  Futures odds tracker for championship markets
• Improved
  Odds refresh rate increased to every 5 minutes during peak hours
• Fixed
  Odds cache now correctly stores per-book lines for all supported markets

Initial Launch

• Added
  Core picks dashboard with NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL coverage
• Added
  Real-time odds from 10+ sportsbooks via The Odds API
• Added
  AI chat assistant for game analysis and betting questions
• Added
  Subscription tiers: Free, Pro, VIP, and Lifetime
• Added
  Manus OAuth authentication with session management